The media is telling us how far behind Donald Trump is in the polls. There are regular articles about how Trump's presidency is melting down and in panic.
It might be informative to consider the situation four years ago. In 2016 after Trump clinched the nomination and before the convention he trailed Hillary Clinton in the polls by about the same percentage as today. Four years ago Hillary Clinton was a candidate without a strong, excited base. She was unable to get much of the Obama vote, in particular in the swing states which mattered.
So today? Trump trails in the polls. He has an opponent who hasn't generated a lot of excitement. For many on the left Joe Biden's chief appeal is that he isn't Donald Trump. People have publicly stated they are voting for Biden as a vote against Trump, especially to to get around some of the unpalatable things in Biden's past.
We shall see how the election progresses.
Tuesday, June 30, 2020
Saturday, June 20, 2020
Expect increased racial disparities?
Recent protests have been all about reducing racism yet what will be the practical result? It seems likely that "racism", defined as avoiding hiring or associating with some racial groups, might increase.
First, after the riots over the death of George Floyd, inner cities are going to see a recession. Jobs have been lost at local businesses which have been damaged or destroyed. Many businesses will leave the area rather than re-open in the same location. And businesses will think twice before locating within the city.
Why? We are starting to see violent protest after every new viral event (e.g. Atlanta this last weekend). There is also an election in November and if Donald Trump is reelected there is a good chance of a new round of violent protest. There were protests and some violence after Trump's initial election, it will be much worse if he's reelected.
There is also an emphasis on unintentional racist statements. These can be as simple as asking somebody "how was your weekend". If this is racist I can argue ANY general conversation or small talk might be considered racist by somebody. Will people want to hire minorities if there's a chance employees will be called racist for statements they consider normal conversation?
We also see a number of colleges and schools grading minorities on a more lenient scale. There is already a problem (due to affirmative action and quotas) that a minority hire for a job may be less qualified. Add the fact their GPA might be inflated relative to non-minorities and companies are left wondering if the candidate is really qualified. Better to hire the non-minority you know did the work.
Unfortunately this will result in another round of people being told all whites are racist.
First, after the riots over the death of George Floyd, inner cities are going to see a recession. Jobs have been lost at local businesses which have been damaged or destroyed. Many businesses will leave the area rather than re-open in the same location. And businesses will think twice before locating within the city.
Why? We are starting to see violent protest after every new viral event (e.g. Atlanta this last weekend). There is also an election in November and if Donald Trump is reelected there is a good chance of a new round of violent protest. There were protests and some violence after Trump's initial election, it will be much worse if he's reelected.
There is also an emphasis on unintentional racist statements. These can be as simple as asking somebody "how was your weekend". If this is racist I can argue ANY general conversation or small talk might be considered racist by somebody. Will people want to hire minorities if there's a chance employees will be called racist for statements they consider normal conversation?
We also see a number of colleges and schools grading minorities on a more lenient scale. There is already a problem (due to affirmative action and quotas) that a minority hire for a job may be less qualified. Add the fact their GPA might be inflated relative to non-minorities and companies are left wondering if the candidate is really qualified. Better to hire the non-minority you know did the work.
Unfortunately this will result in another round of people being told all whites are racist.
Monday, June 15, 2020
To "defund the police" it might be best to vote for Trump
The death of George Floyd has brought demands for police reform. Suddenly politicians, largely Democrats, are demanding police reform. Which is ironic since Democrats have controlled most large cities in the US for decades.
Now the question is how much change will actually happen. Will the police be reformed or will the issue die out after a few token gestures?
It occurs to me if Joe Biden wins the presidency in November the "defund" the police movement is liable to die down. This is because part of the push for police reform is being framed as anti-Donald Trump. All of today's ills can be blamed on Trump and the Republicans (whether guilty or not) but as soon as Democrats are in control there's no reason to complain.
If, on the other hand, Donald Trump wins re-election then the Democrats need things to complain about. Defund the police can remain as a hot reform issue.
Now the question is how much change will actually happen. Will the police be reformed or will the issue die out after a few token gestures?
It occurs to me if Joe Biden wins the presidency in November the "defund" the police movement is liable to die down. This is because part of the push for police reform is being framed as anti-Donald Trump. All of today's ills can be blamed on Trump and the Republicans (whether guilty or not) but as soon as Democrats are in control there's no reason to complain.
If, on the other hand, Donald Trump wins re-election then the Democrats need things to complain about. Defund the police can remain as a hot reform issue.
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