The first US President to be impeached was Andrew Johnson in 1868. I recently read a book about his impeachment, Impeached by David O. Stewart. As I read it I was struck by the similarities between Andrew Johnson's impeachment and the demands for the impeachment of Donald Trump.
Andrew Johnson became President when Abraham Lincoln was assassinated. As is frequently the case, Andrew Johnson's selection as Vice President had more to do with regional politics (Johnson was from a former slave state) and little to do with what Mr. Johnson would do if he became President.
Immediately after the Civil War the nation was split into highly partisan political camps. On one side was the South, which had just been forced to give up slavery. Many in the South wanted to return to a system as close to slavery as possible. On the other side in the North were the Radical Republicans who wanted (or said they wanted) equality for Blacks. The Radical Republican viewpoint must be tempered by the fact that most of the non-slave holding North didn't allow Blacks the vote or full civil rights at the time. There was also a push for revenge against the South for seceding. Andrew Johnson became President in this environment and largely sided with the South. He allowed Southern States to return to the union on fairly easy terms and was willing to allow former Confederate politicians and officials to return to positions of power.
The impeachment of Andrew Johnson came about under this backdrop. Many in Congress wanted Johnson impeached for his handling of Reconstruction. The "high crimes and misdemeanors" which Johnson was guilty of mattered little, they wanted him out of office. The Johnson presidency was dominated by political battles between Johnson and Congress. In the end, the impeachment articles against Johnson were largely political, with the crimes consisting largely of not doing what Congress wanted.
Compare the Johnson impeachment with the situation today.
So today's constant demands for impeachment (mirroring constant demands for Andrew Johnson's impeachment).
Today Congress is split on impeachment with no consensus of the crime committed (introduced impeachment resolutions range from "we don't like what he says" to violations of the emoluments clause or collusion with Russia). This mirrors the Johnson impeachment, where there was no consensus the charges.
And in both cases, the impeachment demands are largely political. Today Democrats largely demand impeachment, sometimes moderated by considerations of the effect on the 2020 election. The basis for impeachment has changed, with today's demands based on the fact the Mr. Trump hasn't (in violation of the law) given Congress the full unredacted Mueller Report. The other factor inhibiting impeachment is knowledge that the impeachment process is still political. Since the Democrats don't hold a two thirds majority in the Senate any impeachment would fail (as happened with Bill Clinton and Andrew Johnson).
So if Donald Trump is impeached there are two possibilities. One is that the Democrats will impeach Trump on largely political grounds and the Senate will acquit him of the charges. This will probably happen if the firebrand left of the party is able to gain enough momentum. It might also happen if Mr. Trump is re-elected in 2020 and Democrats are looking at four more years out of power.
The second possibility is that the Democrats will finally find the smoking gun, an actual crime which all sides believe is a crime. That is what happened to Richard Nixon. He lost the support of his own party in Congress and wisely decided to resign rather than risk impeachment and conviction. It's not clear what Donald Trump would do in such a situation. First Democrats must find a charge more serious than dislike for some policies or vague catch all crimes like "obstruction".
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