In addition, the impeachment inquiry is about the Trump Ukraine phone call a few months ago which recently hit the news. Not about Russian collusion, obstruction of Mueller, or any of Trump's many other alleged misdeeds.
The timing and nature of the inquiry appears to say some interesting things about Democratic party politics:
First is Nancy Pelosi switching from opposing impeachment to supporting it. This happened when news reports were stating a majority of House Democrats supported impeachment. I remember a number around 150. Though not a majority of the House of Representatives this switch makes sense. If a majority of Democrats support impeachment there is a risk that those Democrats could challenge Pelosi as Speaker if she didn't start supporting impeachment.
The impeachment inquiry starting based on an announcement by Nancy Pelosi rather than a vote of the full House of Representatives (as has happened in the past) implies that support for an impeachment inquiry isn't as solid as it might be. While there are reports of 222 Democrats and a couple Republicans supporting an inquiry, enough to win a vote, it appears some of this support isn't as solid (or is not publicly as solid) as needed to win a public vote. Many Democrats in swing districts probably don't want to be on record as having voted for an impeachment inquiry. Some are likely saying they support an impeachment inquiry in relatively anonymous questions of support (to satisfy their left wing base) while not wanting to vote publicly.
Finally there are the grounds for impeachment. Several impeachment resolutions have been introduced in the House over the last 2 1/2 years. The charges in those resolutions range from Russian collusion to one that basically says "We don't like what he says". None of these resolutions or charges went anywhere.
Instead the impeachment resolution is based on a phone call between President Trump and the president of the Ukraine. In this Joe Biden's past dealings with Ukraine were mentioned, including a request that Ukraine investigate any wrongdoing by Biden or his son. Since Joe Biden is an announced candidate for president next year this has been seized on as an attempt to destroy a political opponent and an obvious "high crime or misdemeanor". Added to this are whistleblower complaints which have made a number of allegations, none of which have been substantiated (or, to be fair, investigated in many cases).
Why is it that the impeachment inquiry is being done without open votes and on the basis of a fairly recent charge which most people probably don't consider a big deal? After all, presidents negotiate with foreign leaders all the time and there are bound to be offers and conditions.
It seems today that Democrats are becoming desperate. Democrats promised to impeach President Trump since before his inauguration. They have made constant accusations of wrongdoing which have not panned out. It's now time for a new election and they are faced with the possibility that they may lose the 2020 election. It's time to hurry up and impeach, putting the onus on the Senate to try the impeachment. Democrats probably then see one the following results:
- Senate Republicans refuse to hold an impeachment trial. This would spark a constitutional crisis and be very negative press for the Republican party.
- President Trump resigns before the trial following the example of Richard Nixon. This is also very unlikely unless there's clear evidence of guilt and evidence a lot of Republican senators are willing to vote to convict.
- The Senate holds a trial and acquits President Trump. This was Bill Clinton's approach. The hope here is the impeachment trial will so damage Trump he will lose reelection.
- The Senate convicts Trump. In this case he will be out of office. This is the ultimate goal of the Democrats, something they've promised their base for 2 1/2 years.
The Democrats are playing a risky game here. Politically the United States is split in half, with one half considering Donald Trump to be the worst thing that's happened to the country and the other half strongly in favor of him. Trump's supporters might dislike some of his actions (I know of few people who like his use of Twitter) but they are in favor of many of his policies. These people have seen the obvious media bias and one sided reporting of the last few years and generally discount any negative Trump story. Trump's opponents tend to hate everything about him. They accept any negative story and discount anything positive.
If Democrats succeed in ousting President Trump or obviously cause him to lose the 2020 election based on the impeachment process they will create a large constituency, largely Hillary Clinton's "deplorables", who feel they are again being ignored by "coastal elites". These people are a prime constituency for the next charismatic candidate who challenges the "system".
If Democrats don't oust the President it isn't clear that impeachment is going to hurt him. Enough people believe that President Trump is being persecuted, especially if the charges don't pan out, that a failed impeachment might result in a backlash against Democrats at the polls.
If Democrats don't oust the President it isn't clear that impeachment is going to hurt him. Enough people believe that President Trump is being persecuted, especially if the charges don't pan out, that a failed impeachment might result in a backlash against Democrats at the polls.
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